When does
growth pay off?
Timing American small-cap growth — through the economy, earnings and price
Explore the timing
Explore what matters
Economy → Price → Earnings
Macro atmosphere
Observed dataLoading economic data
FRED observations keep their own dates
Price analysis
IWM · Russell 2000 ETF
4-hour price
Daily price · 200-day average
TradingView prices may be delayed · Logos where available · Charts don’t change the entry price below
What would make the price work?
Start with an example, then change the assumptions
The earnings / price trade-off
Annual price returnEPS and valuation ±25% · Scenarios, not probabilities
How to read this
This tool asks what price could work under your assumptions — it has not learned when to buy
EPS means earnings per share · Extra shares reduce the assumed EPS · Returns exclude dividends, fees and taxes
Economic readings provide context and do not change these calculations
Annual reports can be old and holdings prices are dated snapshots · A profitable business can still be a poor investment at the wrong price
How funding changes the cash left over The business model
A made-up business for understanding debt, investment and dilution
This is separate from the stock-price scenarios above
A simple business model
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLYStarting point: $150M in sales and $90M in debt
Assume 25% tax on positive profit before tax, a noncash wear-and-tear expense of 3% of sales, and extra working cash equal to 10% of added sales
Leaves out acquisitions, loan repayments, leases and money raised
† The original shareholders’ share after new shares are issued
This example does not predict a stock return
Across the small-cap market
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Company figures
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| Company | Year ending | Revenue | Profit margin* | Cash after investment* | Debt / assets | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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* Profit margin is profit before interest and tax divided by sales
Cash after investment is cash from running the business minus reported equipment and property spending
Debt / assets compares reported borrowing with what the company owns — it needs all three borrowing categories and excludes leases
A dash means a figure is missing, not zero • Banks need a different approach
Open a company to see debt due dates and original sources
The research
Test the idea against the evidence
The questions we will test 10 open questions
How we will test investment timing The method
Compare investing early in a recovery, waiting for profits to improve and buying after the market has repriced
Use what was known
Keep original release dates for reports, forecasts and economic data
Include companies that later failed or left the index
Compare simple choices
Test against holding IWM, monthly investing and simple earnings or price rules
Measure returns after fees, trading costs and time spent waiting
Test on later periods
Set the rules first and test them on unseen years
Compare 6, 12 and 24 month results, losses and missed upside
Report uncertainty
Separate an earnings forecast from a trading signal
Show failures, missing data and whether an idea works outside the period that suggested it
Coverage, updates and missing data The sources
Company facts: original annual SEC reports with filing links and saved source files
Economic backdrop: dated FRED observations, which can be revised
Forward EPS: your assumptions until an analyst forecast feed is connected
Exact historical Russell membership, analyst estimate histories and total returns including delisted stocks still need a suitable data source
Without those, we do not claim a tested buy signal or an optimal entry date
Track Russell index changes ↗ · IWM holdings ↗ · Economic data ↗
Saved membership lists preserve additions and removals going forward
They cannot recreate membership before this project began