{
  "version": "0.4.0",
  "publication_status": "protocol-only",
  "study_title": "Smallcap Atlas \u2014 Timing American small-cap growth",
  "primary_outcomes": [
    "24-month fundamental cash-flow per share change",
    "24-month financing distress / survival",
    "12-month risk-adjusted equity total return"
  ],
  "pilot_scope": "Complete usable listed IWM equity coverage, with explicit mapping and reporting gaps",
  "target_scope": "Dated Russell 2000 membership and security-level total return panel, including exits and delistings",
  "analysis_status": "no fitted models, no historical membership panel, no claims of alpha",
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "id": "H01",
      "name": "Entry before earnings",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Waiting for sustained profits has no out-of-sample benefit after missed upside and costs"
    },
    {
      "id": "H02",
      "name": "Price versus expectations",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Forecast revisions add no predictive information after price and valuation"
    },
    {
      "id": "H03",
      "name": "Macro interaction",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Rates, inflation, employment and credit conditions do not change the timing relationship"
    },
    {
      "id": "H04",
      "name": "Quality of profit",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Cash conversion and margin breadth add no information over EPS growth"
    },
    {
      "id": "H05",
      "name": "Ability to wait",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Funding runway and debt maturities have no incremental association with timing outcomes"
    },
    {
      "id": "H06",
      "name": "Dilution",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "New share issuance does not change per-original-share recovery outcomes"
    },
    {
      "id": "H07",
      "name": "EPS outlook",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Vintage EPS forecast revisions and disagreement have no out-of-sample information"
    },
    {
      "id": "H08",
      "name": "Composition",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "Fixed-member and changing-member improvements do not differ"
    },
    {
      "id": "H09",
      "name": "Economic timing value",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "A timing rule does not improve net returns over the predeclared comparators"
    },
    {
      "id": "H10",
      "name": "Incremental price-trend value",
      "status": "to_be_tested",
      "null": "A daily 200-trading-day average and separately specified 4-hour price inputs do not improve net returns beyond macro, earnings and valuation after costs and turnover"
    }
  ],
  "version_controlled_on": "2026-10-17",
  "registration_status": "Draft protocol in version control; no external preregistration and no fitted analysis",
  "analysis_freeze_required": true,
  "implemented_infrastructure": [
    "Filing-coherent annual SEC extraction",
    "Hashed raw inputs and offline replication",
    "Conservative capital metrics and partial tagged maturities"
  ],
  "plain_language_objective": "Find a better time to invest in small caps by testing the economy, profits, expectations and the price paid together",
  "research_focus": {
    "index": "Russell 2000",
    "etf_reference": "IWM \u2014 iShares Russell 2000 ETF",
    "scope_status": "All usable listed IWM holdings as a current proxy; not certified Russell membership",
    "source": "https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf"
  },
  "timing_status": "Deterministic scenarios implemented; no fitted timing model, no validated buy signal",
  "timing_design": {
    "forward_horizons_months": [
      6,
      12,
      24
    ],
    "comparators": [
      "IWM buy-and-hold",
      "Equal monthly investment",
      "Lagged profitability rule",
      "Simple price trend rule"
    ],
    "training": "Chronological expanding windows with purged overlapping labels and a final untouched test period",
    "primary_timing_endpoint": "Net-of-cost 12-month excess total return over IWM at matched risk",
    "secondary_endpoints": [
      "Drawdown",
      "Missed upside",
      "Time waiting",
      "Turnover",
      "Distress",
      "Calibration of return distributions"
    ],
    "required_inputs_not_connected": [
      "Original-vintage analyst EPS forecasts and revisions",
      "Point-in-time index membership before project inception",
      "Security-level total returns including delistings",
      "Tradable-date macro vintages and releases"
    ]
  },
  "market_display": "External TradingView quotes may be delayed; 4-hour bars and daily 200-trading-day SMA are separate; no external quote scraping or backtest archive",
  "scenario_defaults": "Illustrative assumptions only, not analyst forecasts"
}